Gold Binary Options Trading

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The Geeky Gold Strategy – Trading Binary Options on Gold

Full Review of he Geeky Gold Strategy for Binary Options Trading

Gold is the only commodity I trade and not even that closely. Because the market for gold is so liquid it is especially good for using pure technical analysis. Find out how I trade gold using Fibonacci Retracements.

The Most Liquid Market

Gold just may be the most liquid market in the world. Oil is right up there as well but I like to stick to gold. Because of its use in jewelry, commercial trade, easy storing and portability gold literally trades 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Think about it, even when the international commodity trading arenas are closed people are still buying and selling gold around the world. It is because of this liquidity that gold is so well suited for pure technical analysis. Yes, gold is affected on a day to day basis by news events that shock, scare or support the markets but the underlying trends in gold are driven on long term fundamentals that are well disseminated throughout the market.

How the Gold Strategy Works

I use Fibonacci to do most of the work for this strategy. Fibonacci Retracements are a great way to predict possible areas of support and resistance based on the Fibonacci Sequence and the Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio is a numerical way to explain the relationships between objects in nature known to man kind for thousands of years. Basically the Fibonacci Tool is used to predict lines, or retracement levels, based on the height and magnitude of bull and bear markets.

I start with 10 year charts of weekly data in order to get a good view of the long term trend. I then use the Fibonacci tool to draw retracements of the last completed trend. It does not matter if the last trend is bull or bear. This will provide you with your retracement lines. The next step is to look at the charts and see how these lines relate to the current price and trend. Is price approaching a Fib line? Is price bouncing from a Fib line? On this chart gold prices have bottomed and begun to retrace. Price has moved up to the first retracement level and broken through it. A confirmed break through has a target of the next Fib line up or down, depending on direction. The first retracement line was broken so the next target is the next retracement, 38.2%. If this line is broken the next target will be the next line, the 50% retracement. Based on this chart golds next target is around $1475 and the next higher retracement level. This sets the trend as up for the current trade.

  • Signals require a close above/below the target Fibonacci Retracement. More than one close strengthens the signal but adds risk to the trade.

Once you have determined trend on the weekly charts you can move down to the daily charts for shorter term signals. Only trade in the direction of the prevailing trend as determined by the weekly charts. If prices are breaking above a Fib line then you need to look for bull signals on the daily charts.

I have marked the bullish break through on this chart of daily prices. If you catch the break early enough on the weekly charts it is possible to take trade before prices cross $1400. Otherwise I would wait for price to cool off a bit and confirm support before making a trade. Upon confirmation an option with a few days to a week of expiration would be my choice.

Tips For Signals : If prices on the weekly charts are dropping below a Fib line then you need to be trading bearish on the daily charts. The same is true for bounces, if the price is bouncing from a Fibonacci support on the weekly then trade bullish on the daily char. If prices are falling from Fibonacci resistance trade bearish. Regardless of which signal no more than one week should be allowed until expiration. The closer to the next Fibonacci level the shorter the expiration should be.

Moving down to the chart of 30 minute prices there many opportunities for short term trades as well. On this chart we can see the beginning of the break and then the break above the $1400 level. Because the prevailing trends on the previous charts are bullish we can trade these bullish signals with option expiries of 2-4 hours. More experienced traders can also profit from the bear signals presented on the 30 minute chart between the 28 and 30 of August. These are harder to predict and should only have very short expiry times, like 1-2 hours.

Why This Strategy Does Not Suck

This strategy does not suck because it uses a well known technical analysis tool, utilizes multiple time frame analysis, can be used in either direction and provides targets. Lots of strategies can give good signals but how many also deliver targets? I know that targets are less important to binary traders than other types of speculators but they are still a useful tool. Targets can help you decide which is the best expiry or even if you want to trade at the current time. They are also great for contrarian traders as well.

Why This Strategy Might Suck

This strategy might suck because it is not exactly trend following. It does make a nod toward trend analysis by utilizing market direction in relation to Fibonacci Retracements but other than that it is basically non-directional. It also might suck because Fibonacci analysis is more of an art than a science. Fibonacci does an uncanny job of predicting where prices may turn but are nothing more than an educated guess. Even thought the natural world can be explained by Fibonacci’s analysis it (nature) is not governed by it and will often prove it.

My Last Words On The Geeky Gold Strategy

I like this strategy. It works for me but I have to be honest, trading gold is tricky. Using Fibonacci’s is also tricky and not for the uninitiated. When gold is trending strongly it works really well. When gold is consolidating or trending sideways it also works but can provide whipsaws and false signals. I highly recommend that only traders with some understanding of trading use this technique. It definitely takes a little imagination to use but Fibonacci is a great way to measure market movements. For others, try using Fibonacci along with your other tools and see how the retracements relate to them and your current analysis.

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Gold Trading Strategy

Binary Options Strategy for Trading Gold Prices

This article is sponsored by OptionBit which is our recommended broker for trading gold with binary options.

Gold is one of the underlying assets traded in the binary options market. This is just as well too, because trading gold in the commodities market is just too risky for most retail traders. The margin requirements are high, it needs a lot of capital (in excess of $10,000) and a heart of steel to bear the drawdowns that could occur. That is not to mention the monumental losses that could occur in a crazy market when slippage could blow out a trader’s account.

Why Trade Gold through Binary Options?

The binary options market provides a way out to trade gold in a controlled environment, with reduced risk of a catastrophic loss, smaller margin requirements and by consequence, lesser trading capital needed. There is no fear of gold rolling back by almost a thousand pips against your position before it decides to do as you wish it to. No fears about over-exposing your account.

In the world of binaries, the trader’s loss is restricted to the cost of the trade. If the trade behaves as the trader wishes, he gets his cost back and some extra. This “extra” could be up to 81%, or if you know how to play this multiple ways, could be as much as 500%.

In trading gold, there are several things to consider before your desire to make money from it transcends from the pedestal of dreams to the reality of tangible dollars in your hands.

Firstly, there is the trade types:

– Touch/No Touch: Here, the trader bets on the price action touching a chosen price level called the strike price, (touch) or not touching that price at all (no touch). There are variations such as double one touch, double touch, etc. The key is that the chosen behaviour of gold has to occur in the trader’s favour before the expiry date.

– In/Out: The price of gold can decide to trade within a price range formed by an upper and lower trend line. Whether this asset decides to stay within the tunnel so created (in), or break out on either side (out), is a matter for the trader to decide. A correct choice is rewarded.

– High/Low: How about trying to decide if gold will end higher than the present price by the time the trade expires, or lower? Another way for the trader to possibly make money.

These are three possible outcomes that can translate into some cash to finance that shopping spree that has occupied your mind lately. Let us now help you along the way.

A Binary Options Gold Trading Strategy

Gold is volatile. Its daily pip movements are anywhere between 1,000 pips and 10,000 pips. With this sort of volatility, I would like to trade a Touch/No Touch trade. The key is to get the direction right, then set an appropriate strike price and expiry date. If we get these three ingredients right, the trade will succeed.

First, we have to ask ourselves: what makes gold tick literally? Traders love gold because it is a safe-haven instrument which they can buy in periods of uncertainty. As at late 2020/early 2020, was there uncertainty in the markets? The answer is a resounding YES! Eurozone uncertainty was really bothering traders. When there is uncertainty, the price of gold only heads in one direction; upwards!

So now that we had a direction, the next thing was to determine an appropriate strike price. An appropriate strike price has to be one which is achievable (within the price range of movements for gold), and which is not beyond a resistance point. An expiry of one week was set as the expiry period.

If gold is expected to be bullish, it should either Touch a bullish target, or Not Touch a bearish target.

Based on these principles, we had two gold trades on 19 th October, 2020 and on 12th January, 2020.

Trade 1

In the first scenario, we used a bullish gold prediction to predict a Touch on a strike price which was within reach, and it performed as we said it would.

Trade 2

This screenshot shows a No Touch trade for gold, where we used the principles we described above to say that gold was not going to touch a bearish target. A very profitable trade it turned out to be.

This is a summary of one of the ways to trade gold in the binary options market. There are other ways too, but if you master this method, you will make some good money.

A Guide to Trading Binary Options in the U.S.

Binary options are financial options that come with one of two payoff options: a fixed amount or nothing at all. That’s why they’re called binary options—because there is no other settlement possible. The premise behind a binary option is a simple yes or no proposition: Will an underlying asset be above a certain price at a certain time?

Traders place trades based on whether they believe the answer is yes or no, making it one of the simplest financial assets to trade. This simplicity has resulted in broad appeal among traders and newcomers to the financial markets. As simple as it may seem, traders should fully understand how binary options work, what markets and time frames they can trade with binary options, advantages, and disadvantages of these products, and which companies are legally authorized to provide binary options to U.S. residents.

Binary options traded outside the U.S. are typically structured differently than binaries available on U.S. exchanges. When considering speculating or hedging, binary options are an alternative—but only if the trader fully understands the two potential outcomes of these exotic options.

Now that you know some of the basics, read on to find out more about binary options, how they operate, and how you can trade them in the United States.

U.S. Binary Options Explained

Binary options provide a way to trade markets with capped risk and capped profit potential, based on a yes or no proposition.

Let’s take the following question as an example: Will the price of gold be above $1,250 at 1:30 p.m. today?

If you believe it will be, you buy the binary option. If you think gold will be below $1,250 at 1:30 p.m., then you sell this binary option. The price of a binary option is always between $0 and $100, and just like other financial markets, there is a bid and ask price.

The above binary may be trading at $42.50 (bid) and $44.50 (offer) at 1 p.m. If you buy the binary option right then, you will pay $44.50. If you decide to sell right then, you’ll sell at $42.50.

Let’s assume you decide to buy at $44.50. If at 1:30 p.m. the price of gold is above $1,250, your option expires and it becomes worth $100. You make a profit of $100—$44.50 = $55.50 (minus fees). This is called being in the money. But if the price of gold is below $1,250 at 1:30 p.m., the option expires at $0. Therefore you lose the $44.50 invested. This called out of the money.

The bid and offer fluctuate until the option expires. You can close your position at any time before expiry to lock in a profit or a reduce a loss, compared to letting it expire out of the money.

A Zero-Sum Game

Eventually, every option settles at $100 or $0—$100 if the binary option proposition is true and $0 if it turns out to be false. Thus, each binary option has a total value potential of $100, and it is a zero-sum game—what you make, someone else loses, and what you lose, someone else makes.

Each trader must put up the capital for their side of the trade. In the examples above, you purchased an option at $44.50, and someone sold you that option. Your maximum risk is $44.50 if the option settles at $0, and so the trade costs you $44.50. The person who sold to you has a maximum risk of $55.50 if the option settles at $100—$100 – $44.50 = $55.50.

A trader may purchase multiple contracts if desired. Here’s another example:

  • NASDAQ US Tech 100 index > $3,784 (11 a.m.).

The current bid and offer are $74.00 and $80.00, respectively. If you think the index will be above $3,784 at 11 a.m., you buy the binary option at $80, or place a bid at a lower price and hope someone sells to you at that price. If you think the index will be below $3,784 at that time, you sell at $74.00, or place an offer above that price and hope someone buys it from you.

You decide to sell at $74.00, believing the index is going to fall below $3,784 (called the strike price) by 11 a.m. And if you really like the trade, you can sell (or buy) multiple contracts.

Figure 1 shows a trade to sell five contracts (size) at $74.00. The Nadex platform automatically calculates your maximum loss and gain when you create an order, called a ticket.

Nadex Trade Ticket with Max Profit and Max Loss (Figure 1)

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