Labor Day EURUSD Trading (45 ITM)

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/03/2020 and trading recommendation

What is happening with the single European currency can only be called hysteria. It’s not even panic or fear. Despite everything, the dollar continues to strengthen. Although from a macroeconomic point of view and the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, everything indicates that it should rapidly become cheaper. In a good way, you need to run away from it in a panic. Yesterday’s data showed a record number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in the United States. An additional 30.1 thousand during the day. What can I say, if almost a quarter of all cases of coronavirus infection are not in the United States. Europe is still far, since there are more cases of infection in total only in Italy and Spain. And then there are France, Germany, Great Britain, and so on. But people are not looking at the continents, but at individual countries. So the market’s behavior is counterintuitive. This is hysteria. After all, most of the financial capital in the world is controlled by US institutional investors, and it turns out that, seeing what is happening, both in the economy and in terms of the global pandemic, they continue to close all their positions in a panic and return money home to the United States. Well, we’ll see. Apparently, from their point of view, everything is risky now. But given what is happening in the United States labor market, the picture looks simply absurd.

However, at least in the first half of the day, the single European currency had reasons to decline. Although it was standing still at the time. The fact is that the rate of decline in producer prices has increased from -0.7% to -1.3%. Consequently, the potential for inflation growth is extremely low. Rather, disinflationary processes are at work, and inflation itself may continue to go down. This will force the European Central Bank to seriously think about the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate to negative values.

Manufacturer’s prices (Europe):

But what is happening in the US labor market is not intelligible at all. In just one week, as many as 6,648,000 people applied for unemployment benefits. And this despite the fact that for the previous week there were still 3,283 thousand of them, and then it seemed just a fantastic figure. It was an absolute record. Now it is beaten. Moreover, with such a margin that, it seems, there is nowhere else to go. At the same time, it was expected that there would be 3,680 thousand initial applications for benefits. But the forecast did not come true. The reality was much worse. In addition, repeated applications turned out to be 3,029 thousand, which is less than the forecast of 4,920 thousand. with a very large stretch, this can be regarded as a kind of hope that those who lost their jobs will find a new job in a relatively acceptable time. But this is only hope, and I want to believe in it so much. In any case, we are witnessing the largest increase in unemployment in the United States since the Great Depression. And in theory, this should have a very negative impact on the dollar. But this does not happen. Apparently, investors themselves can not believe what is happening, and have just set their sights on a full report from the US Department of Labor.

Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

But first you should pay attention to retail sales in Europe, whose growth rate should accelerate from 1.7% to 1.9%. At the same time, there is a possibility that the growth rate will be significantly better than forecasts, as indicated by recent data for Germany, where there was an incredibly strong growth in sales.

Retail sales (Europe):

But it’s clear that the US Department of Labor’s data will be in the spotlight, which should either dispel fears or confirm the most terrible. So, it is expected that the unemployment rate should grow from 3.5% to 4.0%. The number of jobs outside agriculture can fall by 150 thousand. Even the average duration of a working week should be reduced from 34.4 hours to 34.0 hours. Well, the growth rate of average hourly wages may slow down from 3.0% to 2.9%. These numbers in themselves are terrifying, but most likely the results will turn out to be much worse. And then the fun begins. Indeed, even if after that the dollar does not begin to rapidly fall in price, it means that investors are in such a panic mood that no macroeconomic statistics concern them at all. Perhaps they rightly believe that if an economic catastrophe occurs in the United States, it will necessarily affect the rest of the world. Indeed, a sharp increase in unemployment and a drop in consumer demand in the United States will automatically lead to an increase in unemployment around the world. Elementary due to the fact that the American consumer market is the largest in the world. And many countries simply live off by exporting their goods to North America. So both dollar growth and its decline are possible, and it is better to work according to the situation, rather than counting on a specific scenario in advance.

The number of new jobs created outside agriculture (United States):

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a rapid downward movement, during which the quote managed to go down locally to the area of 1.0820, after which a stagnation of 1.0820/1.0866 was formed. In fact, the range serves as a variable platform where acceleration may again occur.

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In terms of a general analysis of the trading chart, we see that since the beginning of the trading week, the dollar has strengthened despite everything, recovering by more than half relative to the inertia of the past week.

It can be assumed that the report of the US Department of Labor will exert local pressure on the dollar, during which quotes may return to the area of 1.0960-1.1030. In terms of the technical aspect, it is worth paying attention to the range formed during the Pacific and Asian sessions of 1.0820/1.0866, where it is possible to apply the trading method for the breakdown of borders.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

– We consider long positions in case of price taking higher than 1.0870, with the prospect of a move to 1.0900-1.0960-1.1000 — 1.1030.

– We consider short positions in case of price taking lower than 1.0820, with a move towards the level of 1.0775.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to the ongoing progress, the indicators of technical tools on the hour and day periods changed interest to downward. At the same time, minute segments work on a variable oscillation.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

eur/usd M5 – эксперт для MetaTrader 4

автор не я, и кто не знаю, но похоже толковый чел).

На тестере не тестится, а вот на демо прям молодец. Пробуйте сами и жду комментов.

Советы:

eur/usd M5, попробуйте пользуйтесь на здоровье, только сначала протестите.

А почему (т.е. откуда) были взяты именно такие Stochastic пораметры?

extern double per_K=200;
extern double per_D=20;
extern double slow=20;

1. И в какую сторону будет меняться торговля если изменить эти значения?

2. Как изменить чтобы первый лот открывался не 0.1 а 0.01?

3. Будет он работать если вместо Stochastic прописать Relative Strength Index . (RSI лучше отражает точки входа на рынок. )

Кто на демо гонял? У меня часто Треллинг-стоп работает не корректно. Если рядом есть какая-то “круглая” котировка, типа 1.1300, 1.1200. OrderModify ставится на нее, причем часто “в минус”, и не двигается при движении цены. Я в програмировании ноль, в код не лезу, пробывал удалять OrderModify с графика, ставить MetaTrader-овский тралл, менял стоп-лосс ордера. OrderModify снова там появляется, и Стоп-лосс скачет туда-сюда при тиках, со своего на правильный. Как исправить сам код?

И к ак я понимаю mult – множитель. Но он умножает только Стартовый лот, а далее плюсует результат к предыдущему.

Пример: lotsbuy 0.1

Еще хорошо бы трал поставить не только на последний ордер, а на все которые влазят в нужное кол-во пунктов. Бывает и по 3 ордера в серии идут в шикарный плюс, а в итоге срабатывает только один. Много прибыли теряется.

Или этот сов уже никому не интересен?

visa46 хочет денег))))

Работает на альпари-реал, депозит $1800, за 2 дня он накопил $420 прибыли и в третий день, пятницу накопил эквити минус $510, в таких позициях ушли на следующую неделю, страшновато.

Почему-то покупает на верхах и продает на низах и долго сидит-думает.Порадовало, что на просадке по sell он отрыл buy но сразу зафиксировал по нему прибыль и копил дальше просадку по sell. Можно было открыть еще насколько бай для страховки. Надо уменьшать количество открываемых за один присест ордеров! Надо чтобы продавал по хаям, покупал по низам.

Кто-то спрашивал про брокеров: Альпари какими-то магическими, незаметными способами не дает прибыльно торговать, походу какие-то их роботы, Whotrades ставит задержку, если прибыль получаю стабильно – задержка растет.

не хочу я ни каких денег с чего вы взяли

Кто на демо гонял? У меня часто Треллинг-стоп работает не корректно. Если рядом есть какая-то “круглая” котировка, типа 1.1300, 1.1200. OrderModify ставится на нее, причем часто “в минус”, и не двигается при движении цены. Я в програмировании ноль, в код не лезу, пробывал удалять OrderModify с графика, ставить MetaTrader-овский тралл, менял стоп-лосс ордера. OrderModify снова там появляется, и Стоп-лосс скачет туда-сюда при тиках, со своего на правильный. Как исправить сам код?

И к ак я понимаю mult – множитель. Но он умножает только Стартовый лот, а далее плюсует результат к предыдущему.

Пример: lotsbuy 0.1

Зеркальнопериодический индикатор. Построен на основе RSI, Stohastic, RVI, ADX. Работает на основе экстремумов и фигур.

Расставляет Stop Loss и Take Profit на заданном расстоянии, отображает текущее состояние открытых ордеров.

Скрипт отображает на графике все сделки, совершенные по сигналам поставщика сервиса “Сигналы”.

Для сигналов на продажу/покупку советник использует сигналы индикатора Stochastic.

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD pair on April 3

From the point of view of a comprehensive analysis, we see the strengthening of the US dollar almost throughout the trading week, and now let’s talk about the details. The sequence of inertia is amazing. We have recorded V-shaped oscillations literally from the beginning of January of this year, where there are already four models in total, the scope of which is stably high. Regarding the current week, we see that the dollar against the euro regains its position despite the logic of the fundamental aspect, but in terms of technical analysis, just V-shaped models. The restoration of more than half relative to early inertia is the basis of the existing formation.

Considering the graphic model “Head and shoulders” [H1 graph], which was discussed in the review of April 1, we see that its execution has almost reached its end, which means that theories of local oscillations work.

Let me remind you that back in that week, we decided on the tactics of working on local movements, contrary to all trends, referring to the fact that the market is highly susceptible to the external background, and the panic on it forms movements of considerable proportions. This time we received confirmation of this tactic again, where the upward inertia of the past week, which, at first glance, was stable, also quickly changed its mood, as it arose on the market.

Regarding volatility, we see steadily high indicators that exceed the daily average. Market acceleration will exceed the two-month mark very soon. But now, we can safely say that the activity is many times higher than last year, and such stable stability in the form of acceleration has not been seen for a very long time. Against this background, speculators have intensified, who take this opportunity to take a solid profit from the market.

Details of volatility: Monday – 155 points; Tuesday – 183 points; Wednesday – 115 points; Thursday – 278 points; Friday – 166 points; Monday – 151 points; Tuesday – 234 points; Wednesday – 243 points; Thursday – 326 points; Friday – 194 points; Monday – 191 points; Tuesday – 160 points; Wednesday – 133 points; Thursday – 188 points; Friday – 194 points; Monday – 134 points; Tuesday – 127 points; Wednesday – 136 points; Thursday – 147 points. The average daily indicator, relative to the dynamics of volatility is 108 points [see table of volatility at the end of the article].

Analyzing the past day, we see that the main round of short positions declined again at the start of the European session and lasted until 18:00 UTC+00. Subsequent oscillations occurred in amplitude motion along the level of 1.0850.

As discussed in the previous review, traders considered the two coordinates of 1.0900 and 1.0970, regarding which they planned to start work.

The recommendation from Thursday regarding fixing prices lower than 1.0900 coincided, having a profit at the first forecasted value.

[We consider selling positions if prices are fixed lower than 1.0900, with the prospect of a movement to 1.0850 -1.0775.]

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we see the very inertial fluctuations in the structures of V-shaped models, which we wrote about at the beginning of the article.

The news background of the past day contained data on producer prices in Europe, the pace of which, for the seventh month in a row, has been slowing down. This factor can play a further role in lowering inflation in the EU and, as a fact, put further pressure on the ECB, which will be forced to lower the refinancing rate. In the afternoon, market participants again faced a shock in terms of the labor market in the United States, where the number of applications for unemployment benefits repeated the story of the past week in the form of a multiple increase. So, the number of initial applications was 6,648,000, and repeated 3,029,000, and this is one of the most significant strikes since the Great Depression.

The reaction of the market to such strong statistics was across the entire logic of fundamental analysis, the US dollar continued to strengthen. What is the reason for this resonance? Experts are inclined to believe that investors are uncertain due to the strong external background, where, in view of the possible consequences of the COVID-17 virus in other countries, staying in dollars is most attractive.

In terms of the general informational background, we see that in accordance with the epidemiological situation and the spread of COVID-19 in the world, more than one million cases of infection have already been recorded, of which fatal 53 166. The initial assessment that there are signs of improvement in Europe has not been confirmed, so how the virus from the epicenter [Italy] pumped to Spain, Germany, France, where the indicators are terrifying and the consequences of the pandemic will keep you waiting. So it turns out that investors who see such significant blows to the US labor market immediately look at other countries where the blows can be even more significant, and thereby choose less risk from the overall risk.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have a key event of the week. A report by the United States Department of Labor, which already expects a recession of all that is, but it may turn out to be worse. From a preliminary estimate, unemployment is expected to increase from 3.5% to 4.0%, and the number of jobs outside agriculture can be reduced by 150 thousand.

From the point of view of the logical meaning of fundamental analysis, the report should put pressure on the US dollar, unless, of course, investors continue to remain in the dollar as a relative “safe haven” due to the general risk.

The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar has a number of statistical indicators that are worth paying attention to, but the main impulse remains the external background, which puts enormous pressure on market participants.

The most interesting events displayed below —>

Tuesday April 7th

USA 14:00 Universal time – The number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS (Feb)

Wednesday, April 8

USA 18:00 Universal time – minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee

Thursday, April 9

USA 12:30 Universal time – Applications for unemployment benefits

Friday April 10

USA / EU / Britain – Good Friday

USA 12:30 Universal time – Inflation

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the compression of quotes during the Pacific and Asian trading sessions led to a splash of short positions, just at the start of the Europeans, which as a result, updated the lows of the week. In fact, we received confirmation once again that investors retain their dollar positions, but do not forget that our trading strategy should be built in terms of local positions, since now it is most attractive in the form of income. Thus, it is worth considering both positions at once now, the first one proceeds from the fact that the report of the United States Department of Labor will be even worse, where it is worth looking at the current fluctuation within a given time interval and trying to fly into a local upward move. While there is no report, we have a support level in the form of a value of 1.0775, where it makes sense to take a pause if we do not have positions.

In terms of the emotional background, we see an initial panic, where market participants are very much exposed to the external background, and, as we see in practice, even logical fundamental indicators react in the market in a completely different way.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

– We consider buying positions in two versions, the first technical, that is, a rebound from the level of 1.0775, the entrance is higher than 1.0815, with the prospect of a move to 1.0850. The second method is already considered closer to the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, analyzing the slowdown for shorter periods.

– We consider selling positions already in the field of price fixing lower than 1.0775, with the prospect of a move to 1.0700-1.0650.

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments took the downward side relative to all the main periods due to the downward movement from the beginning of the trading week.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated from Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 3 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 77 points, which is still considered a small indicator, but activity awaits us ahead. It can be assumed that the external background and the report of the United States Department of Labor will be an incentive to further accelerate volatility.

Resistance zones: 1.0850 **; 1.1000 ***; 1.1080 **; 1,1180; 1.1300; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1,2100

Support Areas: 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1.0000 ***.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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