Trading the News – EURUSD and GBPUSD Day Trades

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Contents

EUR/USD (EURUSD=X)

Previous Close 1.086
Open 1.081
Bid 1.081
Day’s Range 1.081 – 1.081
52 Week Range 1.0655 – 1.1496
Ask 1.081

EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Has Rough Week

The Euro has had a rough week, slicing back down below the 1.08 level on Friday and wiping out most of the gains from the previous candle.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Falls Hard Yet Again

The Euro fell quite a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching below the 1.08 level. Having said that, the market did stabilize a bit around the jobs figure, and therefore we could get a slight bounce.

Stocks – US Futures Lower; Economic Damage Mounts

Additionally, gold futures dropped 0.5% to $1,630.05/oz, while EUR/USD traded at $1.0808, down 0.5%.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 3, 2020

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0800, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0816 and the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.0831.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro on Pace to Post Fifth Straight Day of Losses

EUR/USD dipped below the 1.0800 handle in early European trading on Friday and is down nearly 3% in the week thus far as the dollar has regained upward momentum.

Eurozone services PMI skids to worst-ever 26.4 in March

The IHS Markit eurozone services purchasing managers index in March slumped to a reading of 26.4 from 52.6 in February, the worst-ever reading in the history of the series. Any level below 50 indicates contracting conditions, and the final reading was worse than the flash reading of 28.4. In Italy, the services PMI fell to 17.4 in March, plunging from 52.1 in February. “The data indicate that the eurozone economy is already contracting at an annualised rate approaching 10%, with worse inevitably to come in the near future,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Dollar Still in Demand, For Now

At 3:05 AM ET (0705 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rose above 100 for the first time in over a week to stand at 100.460, up 0.2% on the day and up some 0.6% on the week.

Service Sector PMI and U.S Nonfarm Payrolls Put the EUR and USD in the Spotlight

Nonfarm payrolls and service sector PMIs are in focus today. With the West in shutdown mode, both labor market numbers and PMIs are expected to be dire…

Stocks – Europe Seen Lower; Virus Cases Top One Million

European stock markets are set to open lower Friday, weighed by another drop in oil prices as the number of global coronavirus cases tops one million and U.S. unemployment soars. At 2:15 AM ET (0615 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 1.0% lower. France’s CAC 40 futures were down 0.7%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.3%.

Dollar Rides Euro Slump Higher as Jobless Claims Hit Record

By Yasin Ebrahim

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Falls In Risk Appetite Move

The Euro spent most of the day falling on Thursday, as traders rushed towards the safety of the greenback. This was accelerated once we got horrible initial jobless claims figures coming out of the United States.

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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 2, 2020

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0907, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.0892.

ECB pushes back strategy review

The European Central Bank said it has decided to extend the timeline for the review of its monetary policy strategy until the middle of 2021, from an earlier target of the end of 2020. “In the current situation, the decision-making bodies and staff of the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem are focusing all their efforts on addressing the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic,” the ECB said in a statement. The review was launched by its president, Christine Lagarde, shortly after she took office.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Continues to Probe Weekly Lows

EUR/USD has broken down decisively in the early week although buyers have been supporting the pair on dips as the US dollar index faces major resistance.

Stocks – US Futures Point Higher as Crude Oil Gains

Additionally, gold futures gained 0.9% to $1,606.90/oz, while EUR/USD traded at $1.0917, down 0.4%.

Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery

We strongly believe China wants to show some strength in their perceived economic recovery and that these PMI numbers are somewhat “manufactured for effect”.

Stocks – Europe Largely Flat; Eyes on U.S. Unemployment Data

Dollar Edges Lower; Petro Currencies Gain on Trump Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Plunges

The Euro broke down significantly during the trading session on Wednesday, slicing through the 1.10 level and then breaking through the bottom of the hammer that had formed on Tuesday. That being said, it does look like we are struggling to break down below the 1.09 level so I think we are going to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior.

The Coronavirus Continues To Impact The Financial Markets. Crude Oil And Equity Markets

Market volatility will continue until the spread of the virus abates. The numbers suggest that we are some way off…

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 1, 2020

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0935, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0916. This angle stopped the selling earlier in the session.

The Stalled Rebound: Markets Brace yourselves for a Longer Recovery

The recovery in equity markets has stalled along with new evidence of accelerating coronavirus spreading. There is a saying in the market: ” when the US is coughing, the world has a fever”.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Manufacturing PMI Slides to 7.5 Year Low

EUR/USD has fallen back below the 1.1000 handle after a late-day recovery yesterday. The pair fell under pressure shortly after the European open as PMI figures continued to point to an economic contraction.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI slumps to 92-month low in March

The IHS Markit eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index fell in March to 44.5 from 49.2 in February. That’s the lowest reading in 92 months but wasn’t a surprise as the flash estimate was 44.8. Around Europe, Italy’s manufacturing PMI fell to 40.3 from 48.7, that country’s worst since April 2009, while Spain’s fell to 45.7 from 50.4 and Greece’s fell to 42.5. “Even the slide in the PMI to a seven-and-a-half year low masks the severity of the slump in manufacturing as it includes a measure of supply chain delays, which boosted the index,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Stocks – U.S. Futures Lower as Virus Victims Mount

Additionally, gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,606/60oz, while EUR/USD traded at $1.0939, down 0.8%.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. March 25. Results of the day. Mike Pompeo and Donald Trump accuse China of concealing and misinformation related to coronavirus

Average volatility over the past five days: 223p (high).

The EUR/USD currency pair ends the third trading day of the week with the same corrective movement within which it has been in since March 19. Despite the visual weakness of the correction, the pair consistently passes at least 150-200 points a day. And it “only” passed 90 today, March 25th, but this is at the moment, there could be more by the end of the day. We frankly rejoice at the fact that the volatility of the euro/dollar pair began to decline. Despite the fact that the coronavirus continues to spread very rapidly across the planet, we are primarily interested in the foreign exchange market, the trend in it and the reaction of traders to certain events. In recent weeks, there was no justified reaction to any events. We associate this phenomenon with high volatility, which is the first sign of panic. If volatility begins to decline, then most traders begin to bounce back, calm down and get used to new realities. Accordingly, in the near future we can expect the markets to return to normal, although it may take years before, for example, the stock markets of the EU, Britain and the United States fully recover.

Meanwhile, the total number of cases of coronavirus worldwide is 438,000, according to official data. These are only officially recorded cases of the disease. There are almost 70,000 infected in Italy and 55,000 in the United States. The world Health Organization (WHO) notes that over the past day, the largest number of new infections occurred in the EU and the United States. The US accounts for about 40% of all new diseases. There is a strong acceleration in the number of infected citizens in the US. At the same time, a leading epidemiologist Ira Longini predicted that the peak of deaths in America will occur in about three weeks. According to Longini, when this period of maximum mortality and infection is over, it will be possible to partially lift restrictions on movement among American citizens. At the same time, not everyone believes such forecasts are real. Many scientists say that the figure will be six weeks, during which the number of infected and the number of deaths from the COVID-2020 virus will increase in the United States. And at the same time, the United States again blames China. This time, it is no longer about spreading the virus, but about hiding information about the virus that could stop the spread of the pandemic. “I am concerned that the cover – up and misinformation that the Chinese Communist party is engaged in deprives the entire world of the necessary facts to prevent new cases of coronavirus infection,” said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The same opinion is shared by the US President Donald Trump. “If we had learned about all aspects of the disease a few months earlier, the virus could have been contained within the borders of one province(Wuhan),” Trump said.

Meanwhile, there has been a slight decline in the spread of the virus in Italy. However, WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris said it was too early to celebrate the victory. Firstly, fewer coronavirus tests have been conducted in recent days than previously. Secondly, this may be a mere coincidence. Italy has already caught up with China in the number of deaths from the disease, and in the near future it can be doubled.

Average volatility over the past five days: 420p (high).

The GBP/USD currency pair was traditionally more active than the euro/dollar pair on March 25. The pair managed to overcome the critical line during the day, and work out the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, the Senkou span a line, and bounce off it, and return back to the Kijun-sen line. Thus, at the moment, we can say that the buy signal from Ichimoku Golden Cross is extremely weak, so long positions can not be considered relevant. Moreover, at the current bar, the price may again return to the area below the critical line,and the MACD indicator may turn down. Volatility remains very strong. The pound/dollar pair has already passed about 330 points during March 25. It is difficult to say whether the downward trend will resume or whether the pound/dollar pair will now switch to a sideways movement for an indefinite period. We have repeatedly said that the British currency has not had a strong and unambiguous reason to fall by 1500 points against the dollar in the past two weeks. You can note the coronavirus epidemic, and the fall in the main stock indexes of the United States and great Britain, and the fall in the oil market, and absolutely draconian measures taken by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, and the terrible forecasts of the IMF, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley regarding the prospects for the world economy in 2020. However, all these factors apply to both Britain and the US. Thus, from our point of view, the main reasons for the fall of the pound and the reasons that can trigger the resumption of the downward trend are still panic and the general belief of traders that, whatever happens, the dollar was, is and will exist, and is the most secure currency in the world.

Meanwhile, in the UK, the number of cases of the “Chinese virus” reached 8,000. And again, this is only official statistics. No one knows how many people are sick in the UK. In order to have a complete picture of things on hand, it is necessary that absolutely all residents pass a test for coronavirus, which, for obvious reasons, is impossible. Scientists at Oxford University take this fact into account and believe that more than half of the UK population could already become infected, simply as long as they do not have any symptoms of malaise. According to scientists, only one out of a thousand people who become infected with the coronavirus have such a degree of malaise that makes him go to the hospital. And the vast majority of Britons show either very mild symptoms, or none at all.

Recommendations for EUR/USD:

For short positions:

The euro/dollar continues to have a corrective movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is recommended to sell the euro currency if the price consolidates below the Kijun-sen line with a target level of 1.0531 volatility.

For long positions:

Formally, you can buy the EUR/USD pair, as the price crossed the Kijun-sen line, with the first goal at 1.0977. However, we believe that the prospects for the upward movement are now very vague.

Recommendations for GBP/USD:

For short positions:

The pound/dollar pair sharply resumed its downward movement on March 25. Thus, it is recommended to sell the British pound with the goal of a volatility level of 1.1316 after fixing the price below the critical line.

For long positions:

It is recommended to buy the GBP/USD pair in case of a price rebound from the Kijun-sen line with the first goal, the volatility level is 1.2156, but with very small lots. As in the case of the euro currency, it is recommended to remember the increased risks when opening any positions.

Explanation of the illustration:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B – light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

GBP/USD Analysis and Forecast for today, tomorrow

GBP/USD is the second most tradable and popular pair in Forex. Forecasts on that pair as well are highly demanded by the traders. Hence, we publish gbp/usd forecasts for today, for tomorrow and long-term forecasts for a week and a month.

Apart forecasts you can read analysis and expert opinions including pair pound dollar.

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